Capitalytics

**Regression for Real GDP growth**

	Dependent variable (+/- SE):

	Real GDP growth

Constant	140.814 (+/- 23.833)
	p = 0.00001^***
SP500 Stock Price Index	-0.012 (+/- 0.002)
	p = 0.0001^***
US Fed Reserve O-N Loan Rate	-15.248 (+/- 2.603)
	p = 0.00001^***
Unemployment Rate	-8.684 (+/- 0.545)
	p = 0.000^***
Prime Rate	23.799 (+/- 3.812)
	p = 0.00001^***
Commercial Real Estate Price Index	-0.199 (+/- 0.059)
	p = 0.003^***
US Avg Retail Gasoline Price ($-gal; all grades, all formulations)	7.756 (+/- 1.738)
	p = 0.0003^***
30-year Treasury Yield	154.047 (+/- 41.361)
	p = 0.002^***
LN_30-year Treasury Yield	-517.281 (+/- 105.340)
	p = 0.0001^***
20-year Treasury Yield	-238.333 (+/- 35.910)
	p = 0.00001^***
LN_20-year Treasury Yield	612.108 (+/- 81.184)
	p = 0.00000^***
10-year Treasury Yield	179.612 (+/- 20.285)
	p = 0.00000^***
LN_10-year Treasury Yield	-375.569 (+/- 31.143)
	p = 0.000^***
7-year Treasury Yield	-142.156 (+/- 18.414)
	p = 0.00000^***
LN_7-year Treasury Yield	338.712 (+/- 41.877)
	p = 0.00000^***
LN_5-year Treasury Yield	-116.940 (+/- 18.037)
	p = 0.00001^***
3-year Treasury Yield_2	-6.324 (+/- 1.848)
	p = 0.003^***
6-month Treasury Yield_2	1.772 (+/- 0.323)
	p = 0.00002^***
5-year Treasury Yield_2	13.125 (+/- 2.625)
	p = 0.0001^***

Observations	40
R²	0.972
Adjusted R²	0.947
Residual Std. Error	1.767 (df = 21)
F Statistic	39.973^*** (df = 18; 21)

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01