Example: Mortgage delinquency migration matrix
NY Fed HHDC quarterly transition rates for mortgage accounts
This model assembles the New York Fed Household Debt and Credit quarterly transition rates for mortgage accounts into a three-state migration matrix: Current, 30–89 days late, and 90+ days late. The source labels the middle bucket "30-60 days late"; those are the 30-day (30–59) and 60-day (60–89) buckets, so 30–89 days late, not yet 90+. Blue cells are published. Current → Current (amber) is 100% minus the published Current → 30–89 and Current → 90+ rates. The other amber cell is the residual stay in 30–89. Gray cells are not published — the report does not give transitions out of 90+ days late, and it does not split charge-off, foreclosure, or prepayment as separate destinations.
Latest quarter: April 2026 (n = 90 quarters from 2004).
| From \\ To | Current | 30–89 days late | 90+ days late |
| Current | 98.93% | 0.84% | 0.23% |
| 30–89 days late | 42.04% | 42.55% | 15.42% |
| 90+ days late | — | — | — |
Blue = published NY Fed rate. Amber = computed stay-in-state (including Current → Current). Gray = unpublished.
Tabular Data
| Date | Current → 30–89 | Current → 90+ | 30–89 → Current | 30–89 → 90+ | Current → Current | 30–89 → 30–89 |
|
2026-04-01 (2026Q2) |
0.84% | 0.23% | 42.04% | 15.42% | 98.93% | 42.55% |
|
2026-01-01 (2026Q1) |
0.74% | 0.26% | 42.96% | 17.31% | 99.00% | 39.73% |
|
2025-10-01 (2025Q4) |
1.00% | 0.20% | 36.34% | 16.29% | 98.80% | 47.37% |
|
2025-07-01 (2025Q3) |
0.94% | 0.19% | 39.22% | 16.31% | 98.88% | 44.46% |
|
2025-04-01 (2025Q2) |
0.69% | 0.17% | 46.41% | 13.96% | 99.14% | 39.63% |
|
2025-01-01 (2025Q1) |
0.89% | 0.24% | 40.99% | 15.84% | 98.87% | 43.17% |
|
2024-10-01 (2024Q4) |
0.84% | 0.15% | 44.25% | 14.18% | 99.01% | 41.57% |
|
2024-07-01 (2024Q3) |
0.98% | 0.18% | 37.15% | 17.92% | 98.84% | 44.93% |
|
2024-04-01 (2024Q2) |
0.76% | 0.12% | 47.40% | 12.75% | 99.12% | 39.85% |
|
2024-01-01 (2024Q1) |
0.83% | 0.17% | 50.34% | 11.08% | 99.00% | 38.58% |
|
2023-10-01 (2023Q4) |
0.81% | 0.16% | 45.21% | 13.91% | 99.03% | 40.88% |
|
2023-07-01 (2023Q3) |
0.77% | 0.13% | 39.78% | 13.55% | 99.10% | 46.67% |
|
2023-04-01 (2023Q2) |
0.62% | 0.12% | 50.27% | 12.04% | 99.26% | 37.69% |
|
2023-01-01 (2023Q1) |
0.61% | 0.09% | 44.23% | 10.84% | 99.30% | 44.93% |
|
2022-10-01 (2022Q4) |
0.62% | 0.12% | 44.30% | 12.83% | 99.26% | 42.87% |
|
2022-07-01 (2022Q3) |
0.58% | 0.11% | 44.90% | 11.00% | 99.31% | 44.10% |
|
2022-04-01 (2022Q2) |
0.49% | 0.12% | 48.28% | 12.75% | 99.39% | 38.97% |
|
2022-01-01 (2022Q1) |
0.45% | 0.12% | 44.04% | 13.08% | 99.43% | 42.88% |
|
2021-10-01 (2021Q4) |
0.48% | 0.10% | 49.30% | 10.76% | 99.43% | 39.94% |
|
2021-07-01 (2021Q3) |
0.41% | 0.12% | 50.41% | 5.51% | 99.47% | 44.08% |
|
2021-04-01 (2021Q2) |
0.27% | 0.08% | 53.06% | 6.96% | 99.65% | 39.98% |
|
2021-01-01 (2021Q1) |
0.39% | 0.12% | 49.84% | 7.88% | 99.50% | 42.28% |
|
2020-10-01 (2020Q4) |
0.35% | 0.10% | 53.71% | 8.37% | 99.55% | 37.92% |
|
2020-07-01 (2020Q3) |
0.47% | 0.12% | 47.03% | 10.96% | 99.41% | 42.02% |
|
2020-04-01 (2020Q2) |
0.43% | 0.10% | 61.05% | 7.73% | 99.47% | 31.22% |
|
2020-01-01 (2020Q1) |
0.76% | 0.14% | 37.41% | 15.13% | 99.10% | 47.46% |
|
2019-10-01 (2019Q4) |
0.88% | 0.15% | 37.89% | 17.42% | 98.97% | 44.69% |
|
2019-07-01 (2019Q3) |
1.02% | 0.14% | 31.44% | 14.94% | 98.84% | 53.61% |
|
2019-04-01 (2019Q2) |
0.78% | 0.18% | 42.96% | 10.54% | 99.04% | 46.50% |
|
2019-01-01 (2019Q1) |
0.79% | 0.14% | 38.70% | 11.70% | 99.07% | 49.60% |
|
2018-10-01 (2018Q4) |
0.83% | 0.13% | 35.08% | 14.79% | 99.04% | 50.13% |
|
2018-07-01 (2018Q3) |
1.01% | 0.20% | 34.84% | 14.11% | 98.79% | 51.05% |
|
2018-04-01 (2018Q2) |
0.82% | 0.19% | 42.90% | 13.36% | 98.98% | 43.75% |
|
2018-01-01 (2018Q1) |
0.81% | 0.14% | 40.52% | 14.66% | 99.05% | 44.83% |
|
2017-10-01 (2017Q4) |
0.81% | 0.11% | 35.90% | 15.00% | 99.08% | 49.10% |
|
2017-07-01 (2017Q3) |
0.92% | 0.11% | 30.90% | 16.20% | 98.97% | 52.90% |
|
2017-04-01 (2017Q2) |
0.83% | 0.15% | 36.30% | 12.80% | 99.02% | 50.90% |
|
2017-01-01 (2017Q1) |
0.84% | 0.14% | 36.00% | 18.11% | 99.02% | 45.89% |
|
2016-10-01 (2016Q4) |
0.86% | 0.16% | 36.60% | 18.10% | 98.98% | 45.30% |
|
2016-07-01 (2016Q3) |
1.02% | 0.16% | 32.70% | 15.10% | 98.82% | 52.20% |
|
2016-04-01 (2016Q2) |
0.78% | 0.12% | 36.93% | 16.12% | 99.10% | 46.95% |
|
2016-01-01 (2016Q1) |
0.71% | 0.18% | 38.09% | 17.52% | 99.11% | 44.39% |
|
2015-10-01 (2015Q4) |
0.91% | 0.19% | 32.94% | 17.72% | 98.90% | 49.34% |
|
2015-07-01 (2015Q3) |
1.00% | 0.18% | 30.52% | 18.85% | 98.82% | 50.64% |
|
2015-04-01 (2015Q2) |
1.01% | 0.19% | 33.60% | 17.30% | 98.80% | 49.10% |
|
2015-01-01 (2015Q1) |
0.85% | 0.13% | 37.70% | 20.80% | 99.02% | 41.50% |
|
2014-10-01 (2014Q4) |
0.95% | 0.22% | 39.20% | 18.40% | 98.83% | 42.40% |
|
2014-07-01 (2014Q3) |
1.15% | 0.21% | 30.40% | 18.20% | 98.64% | 51.40% |
|
2014-04-01 (2014Q2) |
0.95% | 0.22% | 35.20% | 17.70% | 98.83% | 47.10% |
|
2014-01-01 (2014Q1) |
0.97% | 0.23% | 35.10% | 18.30% | 98.80% | 46.60% |
|
2013-10-01 (2013Q4) |
1.25% | 0.23% | 26.90% | 20.90% | 98.52% | 52.20% |
|
2013-07-01 (2013Q3) |
1.35% | 0.22% | 25.70% | 22.70% | 98.43% | 51.60% |
|
2013-04-01 (2013Q2) |
1.17% | 0.35% | 35.80% | 19.80% | 98.48% | 44.40% |
|
2013-01-01 (2013Q1) |
1.28% | 0.29% | 34.70% | 22.80% | 98.43% | 42.50% |
|
2012-10-01 (2012Q4) |
1.42% | 0.38% | 28.05% | 26.09% | 98.20% | 45.86% |
|
2012-07-01 (2012Q3) |
1.52% | 0.35% | 26.35% | 26.30% | 98.13% | 47.35% |
|
2012-04-01 (2012Q2) |
1.46% | 0.36% | 28.45% | 23.51% | 98.18% | 48.04% |
|
2012-01-01 (2012Q1) |
1.40% | 0.43% | 31.77% | 27.72% | 98.17% | 40.51% |
|
2011-10-01 (2011Q4) |
1.72% | 0.48% | 27.24% | 28.82% | 97.80% | 43.94% |
|
2011-07-01 (2011Q3) |
2.12% | 0.42% | 25.62% | 31.27% | 97.46% | 43.11% |
|
2011-04-01 (2011Q2) |
1.67% | 0.48% | 29.94% | 28.17% | 97.85% | 41.89% |
|
2011-01-01 (2011Q1) |
1.84% | 0.54% | 30.98% | 27.56% | 97.62% | 41.46% |
|
2010-10-01 (2010Q4) |
1.90% | 0.52% | 28.66% | 29.63% | 97.58% | 41.71% |
|
2010-07-01 (2010Q3) |
2.12% | 0.59% | 25.15% | 31.85% | 97.29% | 43.00% |
|
2010-04-01 (2010Q2) |
2.04% | 0.53% | 29.00% | 32.97% | 97.43% | 38.03% |
|
2010-01-01 (2010Q1) |
2.28% | 0.63% | 24.13% | 39.02% | 97.09% | 36.85% |
|
2009-10-01 (2009Q4) |
2.42% | 0.74% | 20.91% | 41.29% | 96.84% | 37.80% |
|
2009-07-01 (2009Q3) |
2.74% | 0.53% | 20.47% | 41.43% | 96.73% | 38.10% |
|
2009-04-01 (2009Q2) |
2.50% | 0.75% | 25.73% | 41.17% | 96.75% | 33.10% |
|
2009-01-01 (2009Q1) |
2.77% | 0.66% | 22.84% | 44.23% | 96.57% | 32.93% |
|
2008-10-01 (2008Q4) |
3.05% | 0.66% | 21.21% | 40.85% | 96.29% | 37.94% |
|
2008-07-01 (2008Q3) |
2.55% | 0.55% | 22.27% | 40.13% | 96.90% | 37.60% |
|
2008-04-01 (2008Q2) |
2.24% | 0.52% | 29.33% | 31.33% | 97.24% | 39.34% |
|
2008-01-01 (2008Q1) |
2.01% | 0.53% | 26.85% | 34.60% | 97.46% | 38.55% |
|
2007-10-01 (2007Q4) |
2.27% | 0.43% | 25.40% | 34.19% | 97.30% | 40.41% |
|
2007-07-01 (2007Q3) |
1.91% | 0.35% | 31.12% | 27.11% | 97.74% | 41.77% |
|
2007-04-01 (2007Q2) |
1.74% | 0.22% | 36.73% | 22.27% | 98.04% | 41.00% |
|
2007-01-01 (2007Q1) |
1.64% | 0.24% | 39.88% | 19.94% | 98.12% | 40.18% |
|
2006-10-01 (2006Q4) |
1.73% | 0.17% | 36.87% | 19.67% | 98.10% | 43.46% |
|
2006-07-01 (2006Q3) |
1.48% | 0.18% | 37.02% | 17.19% | 98.34% | 45.79% |
|
2006-04-01 (2006Q2) |
1.44% | 0.09% | 45.90% | 11.97% | 98.47% | 42.13% |
|
2006-01-01 (2006Q1) |
1.23% | 0.13% | 47.24% | 13.72% | 98.64% | 39.04% |
|
2005-10-01 (2005Q4) |
1.32% | 0.22% | 43.30% | 14.56% | 98.46% | 42.14% |
|
2005-07-01 (2005Q3) |
1.36% | 0.15% | 39.64% | 15.73% | 98.49% | 44.63% |
|
2005-04-01 (2005Q2) |
1.22% | 0.18% | 50.12% | 10.44% | 98.60% | 39.44% |
|
2005-01-01 (2005Q1) |
1.19% | 0.10% | 43.14% | 13.34% | 98.71% | 43.52% |
|
2004-10-01 (2004Q4) |
1.31% | 0.20% | 41.41% | 16.33% | 98.49% | 42.26% |
|
2004-07-01 (2004Q3) |
1.35% | 0.14% | 40.37% | 16.55% | 98.51% | 43.08% |
|
2004-04-01 (2004Q2) |
1.34% | 0.15% | 47.88% | 11.16% | 98.51% | 40.96% |
|
2004-01-01 (2004Q1) |
1.32% | 0.18% | 48.09% | 12.93% | 98.50% | 38.98% |
New delinquency flows by loan type
Same HHDC quarter. These are balance-weighted flow rates into 30 or more days late (the NY Fed "new delinquent" series, which includes 90+) and into 90+. Outstanding debt is the HHDC stock for that product; dollar flows are the rate times that stock.
| Product | Outstanding | Current → 30 or more days late | New 30+ debt | → 90+ days late | New 90+ debt |
| Mortgage | $13.117T | 3.95% | $518.1B | 1.52% | $199.4B |
| HELOC | $0.458T | 2.22% | $10.2B | 1.15% | $5.3B |
| Auto | $1.713T | 7.87% | $134.8B | 3.00% | $51.4B |
| Credit card | $1.263T | 8.69% | $109.8B | 6.97% | $88.0B |
| Student loan | $1.651T | 7.83% | $129.3B | 7.83% | $129.3B |
| Other | $0.568T | 7.46% | $42.4B | 5.19% | $29.5B |
| All products | $18.770T | 4.95% | $929.1B | 2.57% | $482.4B |